HMD 5th Symposium, May 13-15, 2019

Recent Trends and Future Uncertainties in Longevity and Mortality data and methodological approaches in estimating mortality in developing countries

Recent Trends and Future Uncertainties in Longevity

The Symposium is devoted to demographic, epidemiologic, and public health research on mortality, longevity, and health across national and sub-national populations. The purpose of the Symposium is to present and promote research on mortality and survival. Analyses based on data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and the Human Life table Database (HLD) are particularly encouraged. The Symposium aims at addressing major themes and challenges of substantive research as well as methodological and data issues. In addition to contributing to the scientific program, participants are invited to provide feedback and suggestions on the currently available contents and on the methods used as well as to propose future developments for the Human Mortality Database Project.

NOTE: Links are given to abstracts, presentations, and posters, as available. Those available to the public are indicated in green, while those restricted to Seminar participants are in red.


  • Dmitri Jdanov (MPIDR)
  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Director of the HMD; MPIDR)
  • Magali Barbieri (Associate Director of the HMD; University of California Berkeley and Institut National d'Études Démographiques)



  • Mikko Myrskylä (MPIDR)  Global trends in lifespan variation


SESSION I: Mortality patterns and longevity  ● Chair: Vladimir Shkolnikov

  • Guillot, M. (PennPSC/INED); Romero Prieto, J. (CEER); Verhulst, A.; Gerland, P. (UNPD)
    Modeling age-specific mortality by detailed age between 0 and 5 years: Results from a log-quadratic model applied to high-quality vital registration data [PDF]

  • Diaconu, V. (MPIDR); Ouellette, N. (UdEM); Horiouchi, S. (CIDR)
    Inverse function of mortality as a measure of longevity extension [PDF]

  • di Lego, V. (VID/ ÖAW)
    How many times have our lives been saved? A reappraisal of the resuscitation approach using HMD data [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Zheng, H. (OSU); Cheng, S. (NYU)
    A simulation study of the role of cohort forces in mortality patterns [Abstract]


SESSION II: Frontiers of longevity  ●  Chair: France Meslé 

  • Álvarez, J.-A. (SDU); Vaupel, J.W. (SDU)
    Centenarian survival: Increasing or stagnating? [PDF]

  • Cheung, KSL. (HKU); Wang, J.(RUC); Robine, JM. (INED)
    Beyond a mortality plateau: a fresh inquiry into the adult longevity and the force of old-age mortality [Abstract]

  • Poulain, M.(UCLouvain); Herm, A. (TLU)
    Comparing longevity and mortality levels at highest ages with the help of HMD [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Jasilionis, D.(MPIDR); Martikainen, P.(UH); Shkolnikov, V. (MPIDR, HSE)
    Educational components of national longevity advances in Nordic countries [Abstract]


KEYNOTE TALK II  ● Chair: Dmitri Jdanov

  • Emilio Zagheni (MPIDR)
    Digital trace data for demographic research [PDF]


SESSION III: Consistency of mortality data ● Chair: Dmitri Jdanov

  • Oeppen, J. (SDU)
    Net-migration in the Human Mortality Database and related databases [Abstract] [PDF]
  • Noymer, A. (UCI)
    Using Benford`s law to assess life table ensembles: HMD and the WHO Model life tables [PDF]
  • Danilova, I. (MPIDR)
    Consistency of longitudinal time series in cause-specific mortality over the ICD-10 period [PDF]


ROUND TABLE I: The HMD today and tomorrow: challenges and opportunities ● Moderator: Dmitri Jdanov

  • Discussants:
    James Oeppen (SDU)
    France Meslé (INED)
    Michel Guillot (PennPSC/INED) [PDF]
    Sebastian Klüsener (BiB)


KEYNOTE TALK III ● Chair: Magali Barbieri

  • Fanny Janssen(PRC, UG)
    The role of smoking, alcohol and obesity in past and future mortality levels and trends in Europe [PDF]


SESSION IV: Causes of death and determinants I ● Chair: Magali Barbieri

  • Doblhammer-Reiter, G.; Fritze, T. (UniRostock)
    Dementia may become the leading disease at the time of death in Germany: probabilistic disease-projections among the deceased [PDF]
  • Sasson, I.(TAU); Hayward. M. (UT Austin)
    “Deaths of despair” revisited: Widening educational disparities in US adult life expectancy, 2010–2017 [Abstract]


KEYNOTE TALK IV ● Chair: Domantas Jasilionis

  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov(MPIDR, HSE)
    Life expectancy in Russia: consequences of mortality reversal and components of ongoing improvement [Abstract]


SESSION V: Causes of death and determinants II  ● Chair: Domantas Jasilionis

  • Trias-Llimós, S. (LSHTM); Leon, DA (LSHTM, UiT)
    Linking multiple risk factors to cardiovascular mortality for understanding country differences
  • Andreev, E.(HSE); Timonin, S.(HSE); Shkolnikov, V. (MPIDR, HSE)
    The dramatic increase in HIV/Aids mortality in Russia. What do vital statistics tell us? [Abstract] [PDF]


SESSION VI: Spatial inequalities ● Chair: Pavel Grigoriev

  • Barbieri, M. (UCB, INED); Winant, C. (UCB); Dukhovnov, D. (UCB); Boe, C. (UCB)
    Extending the HMD approach to regional databases - an illustration with the United States Mortality Data Base (USMDB) [PDF]
  • Klüsener, S. (BiB); Van Raalte, A.(MPIDR);  Oksuzyan, A.(MPIDR); Grigoriev, P. (MPIDR)
    Small regional disparities in mortality with large regional disparities in economic conditions the case of Germany [Abstract]
  • Bonnet, F. (PSE); D`Albis, H. (PSE)
    Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the past two centuries [Abstract] [PDF]


SESSION VII: Sex differentials ● Chair: Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter

  • Booth, H.(ANU); Qi, C.(ANU); Canudas-Romo, V. (ANU)
    An extended decomposition of change in the sex-gap in life expectancy: elucidating the underlying mechanism
  • Wang, J.(HKU); Cheung, KSL.(HKU); Robine, JM. (INED)
    Sex difference of the compression of mortality in mainland china-based on the adjusted census data using brass-logit method [Abstract]
  • Van Raalte, A. (MPIDR); Aburto, JM.(MPIDR); Kashyap, R. (OX); Zarulli, V. (SUD)
    Sex differences in life expectancy and lifespan dispersion: long-term patterns and emerging crossovers [PDF]


SESSION VIII: Modelling mortality patterns ● Chair: Jim Oeppen

  • Németh, L. (MPIDR)
    Mortality pattern at adult and older ages [PDF]
  • Reynolds, N. (Brown)              
    Increasing mortality of white Americans, a systematic deviation from Gompertz law, and a trend break in cohort health [Abstract] [PDF]
  • Swanson, D. (UCR)   
    Constructing life tables from the Kaiser Permanente smoking study and applying the results to models designed to assess the population health impact of reduced risk tobacco products [Abstract] [PDF]


ROUND TABLE II: Recent trends and future of longevity ● Moderator: Jacques Vallin

  • Discussants:
    Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (MPIDR/HSE)
    Jean-Marie Robine (INED)
    Heather Booth (ANU)
    Isaac Sasson (TAU)



  • Ainhoa Alustiza Galarza (MPIDR) Human Life-Table Database: data resource profile [PDF]

  • Mark Brandenburg (BMC) Native American mortality time trends in Oklahoma: An ecological study of the 45-54-year-old age group (1999-2016) [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Inna Danilova (MPIDR), France Meslé (INED) , Dmitri Jdanov (MPIDR), Markéta Pechholdová (VŠE), Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR), Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (MPIDR), Jacques Vallin (INED) The Human Cause of Death Database [PDF]

  • Eralda Gjika (UniTirana), Olgerta Idrizi (UniTirana), Lule Basha (UniTirana), Eni Dhamo (UniTirana) Analysis of life expectancy and mortality rate in western Balkan region. Projections for Albania [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Olga Grigoriev (MPIDR) International Database on Longevity: data resource profile [PDF]

  • Olga Grigoriev (MPIDR), Rembrandt Scholz (BIVS), Gabriele Doblhammer (UniRostock) Mortality of people with reduced earning capacity: Does it contribute to the difference between East and West Germany?

  • Reiko Hayashi, Futoshi Ishii, Motomi Beppu, Yu Korekawa (all IPSS), Emiko Shinohara (UTokio) The trend of sudden death in Japan [PDF]

  • Yu-Chieh Hsu (UNDP), Heriberto Tapia (UNDP) Older people facing new inequalities: life expectancy in Chile [PDF]

  • Elena Papanova (HSE) Applying the method of extinct generations for estimating old-age population and mortality in Moscow [Abstract]

  • Filipe Ribeiro (UEVORA) Revisiting life tables construction: How different laws can influence mortality forecasts [Abstract]

  • Daniel Schneider (MPIDR) Software module(s) to access and work with data from the Human Mortality Database [PDF]

  • Aleksei Shchur (HSE) Mortality differentials in Russian biggest cities and their surrounding territories [Abstract]

  • David Swanson (CSDE, UCR) Estimating the underlying infant mortality rates for small populations: A case study of counties in Estonia [Abstract]

  • Annelene Wengler (RKI), Janko Leddin (RKI), Heike Gruhl (German Environmental Agency), Elena von der Lippe (RKI) Redistribution of ill-defined codes in the causes of death statistics


Satellite Meeting: Mortality data and methodological approaches in estimating mortality in developing countries

The number of countries included in the Human Mortality Database (HMD) has been approaching its limits due to strict requirements for coverage and reliability of population statistics. The HMD project considers several directions for further development taking into account the global importance and growing demand for more reliable and comparable mortality estimates for developing countries. The main goal is to obtain reliable and consistent mortality estimates by using country-specific dataintensive approach combined with standardized methods and uniform principles. The objective of this satellite meeting is to explore and discuss possibilities to extend the HMD approach to China, India, and other middle- and low-income developing countries.



  • Organizers: Dmitri Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR)


SESSION I: Collaborative studies by the HMD project team ● Chair: Domantas Jasilionis

  • Trifon Missov et al. (MPIDR /PU/ CPDRD)
    Mortality estimates for China and its regions: solving data and methodological challenges [PDF]

  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov et al. (MPIDR /IIPS)
    Reconstructing age-specific mortality in India using data with pronounced age heaping from DLHS and NFHS surveys [Abstract]

  • Magali Barbieri et al. (UCB / AMS-HW)
    Issues in constructing HMD data series in middle-income countries: The case of Mexico [Abstract]


SESSION II: Monitoring mortality trends and differentials ● Chair: K.S. James

  • Christophe Z. Guilmoto (CEPED), Nandita Saikia (IIASA, JNU)
    Local mortality estimation in India. Can we avoid Census data? [PDF]

  • Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez (UCLA-FSPH)
    Impact of delayed effects on human old-age mortality [PDF]

  • Yong Cai (UNC-CPC)
    Mortality trends and variation in China [PDF]


SESSION III: Data challenges: India and Chinas ● Chair: Mathias Lerch

  • Danan Gu (UNPD))
    Data quality of mortality in Chinese censuses [PDF]

  • Usha Ram (IIPS)
    Sample Registration System in India [PDF]

  • Cheng Li (ANU/ZJU), Hong Mi (ZJU)
    Assessments of Provincial Mortality in China’s 2010 Population Census: a study based on the DCMD model life table [PDF]


SESSION IV: Data challenges: Latin American Countries ● Chair:Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez

  • Andres Barajas Paz, Andrew Cairns, Torsten Kleinow (HW)
    Age heaping in population data of emerging countries [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Marília Nepomuceno (MPIDR), Cassio M. Turra (UFmG)
    The population of centenarians in Brazil: An historical analysis from 1900 to 2010 [Abstract] [PDF]

  • Iván Williams, Tim Riffe (MPIDR)
    Argentinian data quality assessment for HMD family of databases [Abstract] [PDF]


ROUND TABLE: Discussion and Conclusions ● Moderator: Dmitri Jdanov

  • Discussants:
    K.S. James (IIPS)
    Christophe Z. Guilmoto (CEPED)
    Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez (UCLA-FSPH)
    Cuiling Zhang (CPDRD)
    Mathias Lerch (MPIDR)